Black Cumin Feasibility Dashboard

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Black Cumin Feasibility

Nigella sativa · Wadi Araba, Jordan

Land area

Planted area (m²)

400,000 m² · 400 dunams · 40 ha

Crop cycles per year

Cycle 1: Nov→Apr (recommended). Cycle 2: Feb→Jun (heat risk).

Plant spacing & density

Row spacing (cm)

30 cm between rows

Plant spacing in row (cm)

15 cm between plants

22,222

plants / dunam

3.6 g

yield / plant

Target yield

Yield target (kg per dunam per cycle)

80 kg / dunam / cycle

Conservative: 60–70 · Moderate: 80–100 · Optimistic: 100–130 kg/dunam

Seed planting rate (kg per dunam)

1.0 kg / dunam

Setup costs (one-time)

Land preparation ($/dunam) Irrigation extension ($/dunam) Other setup ($/dunam)

Total setup: $75/dunam

Revenue / dunam / yr

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Net profit / dunam / yr

—

Gross margin

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revenue − OPEX

Annual ROI

—

on setup capital

Total farm revenue / yr

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Total farm profit / yr

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Break-even price

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$/kg to cover OPEX

Setup payback

—

years to recover setup

Wadi Araba climate — black cumin windows

Environmental suitability for Nigella sativa

Seasonal crop calendar — Wadi Araba planting schedule

Sow Grow Harvest Too hot

Per-plant performance calculator

Plant biology: Each Nigella sativa plant produces 3–9 follicles (capsules) per plant. Each capsule contains 15–25 triangular black seeds. Seeds contain 33–38% fixed oil, 1–3% volatile oil (thymoquinone — the active medicinal compound), and 20% protein.

Revenue vs. cost breakdownper dunam per cycle

Value chain — seeds vs. oil pressing

Net profit sensitivity — yield × price ($/dunam/cycle) Highlighted = current settings

Loss Break-even zone Profitable Strong profit

Risk factors & mitigations▶ Show

Risk	Severity	Likelihood	Mitigation
Summer heat stress (Apr–Jun)	High	Certain	Plant Nov, harvest before late Apr — avoids risk completely
Alternaria blight (fungal)	Medium	Low–Med	Copper fungicide preventive spray; avoid overhead irrigation; crop rotation
Root rot (Fusarium)	Medium	Low	Sandy Wadi Araba soil drains well — natural mitigation; avoid waterlogging
Aphid infestation	Low–Med	Moderate	Neem oil spray; introduce beneficial insects; companion planting with garlic
Price volatility (commodity)	Medium	Moderate	Advance offtake contracts with Amman buyers; oil pressing as price hedge
Water availability	High	Low	Existing on-site well; drip irrigation efficiency 90%; drought-tolerant variety selection
Transport cost (280km to Amman)	Low	Certain	Consolidate loads; dried seeds are lightweight; Aqaba (50km) for export
Seed quality / germination	Medium	Low	Source certified seed from NCARE Jordan; test germination rate before sowing
Market access for organic premium	Medium	Moderate	Certify through JOCA (Jordan Organic Certification); target EU direct buyers

Assumptions & data sources▶ Show

Model assumptions

Yield basis: 80 kg/dunam default reflects attainable yield under Wadi Araba drip-irrigated conditions. Research range: 60–130 kg/dunam depending on variety, irrigation management, and planting density. NCARE Jordan trials report 70–100 kg/dunam for sandy loam sites.
Crop calendar: Wadi Araba data — monthly max/min temperatures from Jordan Meteorological Department; rainfall from JMD Wadi Araba station (avg <50mm/year). Black cumin optimal growing range: 15–28°C. Temperatures above 35°C during flowering significantly reduce seed set.
Water requirement: 350–500 mm equivalent per season (drip irrigation). Black cumin is more drought-tolerant than most crops but needs consistent moisture during germination (days 1–15) and flowering (days 60–90). Drip efficiency rated at 90%.
Plant density: Row spacing 30cm × plant spacing 15cm = 22,222 plants/dunam. Commercial fields commonly use 25–35cm rows. Yield per plant ~3–5g under normal conditions.
Oil economics: Cold-press oil yield typically 30–38% of seed weight. Thymoquinone-rich black cumin oil commands premium prices ($35–80/kg). Pressing equipment cost (external service) $0.50–1.50/kg seeds processed.
Market prices: Jordan domestic wholesale $2.5–4.0/kg. GCC export FOB Aqaba $3.0–5.0/kg. EU/UK certified organic $5.0–9.0/kg. Prices sourced from Jordan Agricultural Marketing Authority 2023–2024 and GCC import trade data.
Organic certification: Jordan Organic Certification Association (JOCA) or EU-equivalent certification. Additional cost ~$20–30/dunam/year. Price premium 25–40% over conventional.
Soil pH: Wadi Araba soils typically pH 7.0–7.8 (calcareous). Black cumin tolerates up to pH 8.0 — well within range. No amendment needed in most Wadi Araba sites.
Setup cost: Assumes basic drip laterals extension ($50/dunam) and land prep ($15/dunam). If Jojoba drip system is already in place, irrigation cost may reduce to $20–30/dunam.
All figures in USD. Season: November sowing → March–April harvest (5–6 months). Second cycle February → June carries 15–25% yield penalty due to May–June heat.